The Fox Inn
30 June 2016 at 15:06 #53011
Actually- TBH I think I have made a lot of sense. The EU IS broken and all the Mediterranean
countries are proof. They are all melting down. I think the UK will come out of this fine.
Whether or not the kingdom stays together will be interesting but for me your amazing
history absolutely proves that you can be totally Great Britain again and without the EU world !30 June 2016 at 17:51 #53014
That would be the Mediterranean countries, not one of which wants to leave the EU?
You (manifestly) know nothing about the UK economy.30 June 2016 at 18:11 #53015Arbutus @arbutus
@lisa @pedant Speaking from a Canadian point of view, I would have thought that it isn’t so much a case of other countries being completely unwilling to do business with Britain, but more an acceptance (or not) of geographic and economic reality. Canada spent a number of years trying to diversify trade after running into problems dealing with the US, and waking up to the realization that we had allowed almost our entire collection of eggs into that one basket. The situation is much better these days, as I understand it, but still, the vast majority of our trade is with the US. This is inevitable as they are our nearest physical neighbour, and such a big economy. I imagine that Britain would find itself in a similar position with regards to the EU.
Admittedly, the EU as an institution is facing big challenges currently, between the migrant situation and the failure to fully integrate certain economies which probably should not have been admitted in the first place. But I think it is certainly far too soon to write them out. One hopes it would be more a case of working out the bugs and fixing them, rather than disintegrating altogether. But that is the view of someone who grew up in a federation that in many ways operates similarly to the EU. Our provinces are self-governing in many areas, control their own taxation, trade, and resources to a huge extent, while the federal government largely oversees immigration, big trade deals and foreign policy, the military, and many social safety nets, as well as being the last word on constitutional issues. That’s an over-simplified view, obviously, but in many ways, Canada feels more like a union of smaller countries than one big one. There is frequent squawking from provinces (and increasingly, cities) when they feel neglected or hard done by. But by and large, it sorts itself out. It tends to lead me to the belief that more unity is better than less, on the whole. How you get there is another problem!
(Like @puroandson, I appreciate @pedant‘s clearly-stated list of areas in which the EU has “given back” to Britain. To an outsider, these facts aren’t always known and I find them hugely helpful. In a general sense, facts aren’t brought up nearly often enough in this kind of debate!)30 June 2016 at 18:43 #53016
Maybe or maybe not. Now with the EU looking towards taking a hit without the UK cash cow
seems to me that it will only get worse for the euro. I think there have been several polls that show
EU skepticism is growing. Time will tell but it seems credible to me.1 July 2016 at 00:23 #53025Anonymous @
oh, well halloo. I think long posts need to be read, no? After all what’s the point? People put a certain amount of work into explaining issues which, here, one can actually understand. 🙂
Are you advocating a New World Order? If so, this would be a tad worrying. No, no, actually, it would be fucking nuts. No, not even that, it would be fascist. Think Orwellian, possibly.
@arbutus you know a heck of a lot more than me! Your post is also enlightening.
The thing which helped me get my head around the various arguments in Aus about the whole shebang was “for every Germany there’s a France” (@pedant).
Then I collected some recent publications (actual books by legitimate publishers) and had a look at the recent problems in a) the Greek economy and b) the German economy and THEN I read about the French.
Houston, we have a problem.
PuroSolo (the son wants in on this argument as in Year 9 they are studying economics and he’s all “this is amazing. Why did you never teach me this stuff? I understand it!!”)
<Puro’s head bowed shamefully>1 July 2016 at 01:47 #53027
Absolutely not! In fact I see the EU as trying to be that. Their grand experiment.
It was originally supposed to be only about trade and it morphed itself into some
totally different sort of platform that is being run by unelected bureaucrats that get paid
outrageous salaries. I saw the euro plunged again today. They cant seem to get a handle
on how to handle their monetary policy. They are losing the UK which means a lot of
assets that helped prop them up. The whole system is going to fracture .
The EU also just paid out something like $20 billion to Portugal a few days ago.
A few years ago they gave France 22 billion. A lot of that money that came from the UK.
Who knows what more they will need to do for Greece and Italy. The EU cant keep trying to live
this way on other peoples money. They think if you are in the union then its ok to redistribute funds.
These countries have lost their self governance on immigration and financial matters. That
would be ok if this was truly an elected government by all the people. But its not.
Btw for those that will say that I should use better sources for my information I say go to any source
you prefer you’ll still find the same facts.1 July 2016 at 05:16 #53028Anonymous @
gosh! No, I wasn’t being offensive -I hope you understand that. Perhaps I’m not expressing myself very well and I apologise. I do feel somewhat alienated from the discussion as an ‘academic’ and teacher.
I expressed my ignorance about financial issues. But I do wonder about the world order system which devotes itself to a market god; worshipped and lauded. So, you’re saying that the EU itself is a World Order system currently and that any opposition to that is a good thing?
I would agree with this.
However, from what I surmise, the UK has received a bundle of cash and support from European markets and corporations which fund the industries in and around major UK cities. And when I think of this, I’m also referring to NI -arguments have been made, progressively, in Australia (as we have a general election tomorrow) that the consequences of Brexit will affect NI deeply. I have difficulty finding good sources which outline the problems facing NI alone. As @pedant mentioned we can’t ignore it.
My research this morning focussed on Brexit effecting change in Sunderland – should that situation be multiplied across other cities the results will be devastating.
I actually think locating really good sources is important in this process. In fact it begins and ends there. I don’t think it’s an easy argument but what I do understand is the nature of Britain’s service industry -completely different to other parts of Europe and very different to Australia’s own. Industries in NZ are sheep, tourism and dairy and its insufficient to keep the country afloat. Kiwis migrate here desperate to find work -it’s a global economy, I’m told – but the profits they make are returned to NZ which dams the argument that what one earns here ‘helps’ our economy.
The other debate we used to have was that our GST (tax on goods and services) was vital except that certain expensive white goods incurred a low GST and these purportedly were purchased by those earning the top .01% of income. The only people which profited were the expensive, European companies which sold the goods-and those who purchased them, evidently.
So, having understood that rather simple debate I’m finding it difficult to approach a debate which effects European markets and other countries which policies are multi-complex.
Thank you for reading, Son of Puro (I’m just typing what Mum tells me to type)
PS: from Son, welcome back @missy. I hope your router and wi-fi are working fine. We have trouble with hours. Its truly appalling, mum doesn’t get this really well. We have a huge Big Bundle of $86 a month and yet our bandwidth is sometimes as low as 370 kilobytes per second. That’s impossible when everyone is on the internet watching movies and playing my PS game (which I do on Saturday nights and on the school hols). I hope yours is quicker: if it isn’t, then I would recommend ringing optus or Telstra or whoever you buy your internet from -if you know what I mean?
(puricle)1 July 2016 at 06:22 #53029
puricle: PS: from Son, welcome back @missy. I hope your router and wi-fi are working fine. We have trouble with hours. Its truly appalling, mum doesn’t get this really well. We have a huge Big Bundle of $86 a month and yet our bandwidth is sometimes as low as 370 kilobytes per second. That’s impossible when everyone is on the internet watching movies and playing my PS game (which I do on Saturday nights and on the school hols). I hope yours is quicker: if it isn’t, then I would recommend ringing optus or Telstra or whoever you buy your internet from -if you know what I mean?
Everything is working now – at last! It was the land-line telephone which caused all the trouble. My broadband (before NBN) was fast anyway, and the only difference I can see, is watching videos on YT, they are instant.
What annoyed me about the whole business, was that we didn’t have a choice. If you didn’t go with NBN you lost the phone and the internet. The phone because it is now fixed to my modem and all calls go through the internet.
However, I have no quarrel with my server iinet, they were wonderful.
We pay $59.90 pm not including any calls we make.
Missy1 July 2016 at 06:29 #53030
The reason I ‘skim’ long posts, is becasue they are about something of which I know very little. I applaud all who can write such detailed posts (I was not criticising) and take the time.
That’s what I meant.
Missy1 July 2016 at 16:42 #53032
I didn’t take any offense. I know a lot of folks living around the midlands part of the UK.
They said the open borders situation was putting pressure on them in various ways.
They anticipate taking some financial hits in the near term. But regarding the EU redevelopment
grants like the 1 in Sunderland the feeling was that the UK sends the EU far more than
they get back in the way of these grants. Free trade within this union helps all the big corporations but
hurts all the small business with over regulation. Basically, these folks just don’t want the EU telling them
how to run the UK anymore. In Australia you don’t have China telling you how to regulate
yourself in spite of living in a global economy. It boiled down to an issue of over reach on the part
of the EU all over the UK.
As far as economic recovery / immigration goes in Australian elections, I can understand why
Labor is backing off those topics after Brexit. Its a tricky argument.1 July 2016 at 23:57 #53035
I just was chatting with my friend Debbie about our conversation on the forum about Brexit.
She is an Oncologist in Derby and tells me that the EU also effects the salary and schedules
of Doctors in the UK. Her family are sheep farmers around Lincolnshire and the sell the wool
to make clothes. Regulations from the EU has crippled her families business. She posted this
video to me about why almost everyone she knows voted for the Brexit. Here it is and its
very enlightening.2 July 2016 at 01:06 #53036Anonymous @
in America lobbyists are essential -it’s (strangely) democratic. Also, you have a load of blokes (and a female journo) saying “corporations love the EU” except you’ve got Farage as part of the team: a known bastard. I mean a complete arsehole.
This seems to be a very odd video -there’s no real depth?
There’s also a problem with the (generally) aristocratic posh blokes (that’s always a worry). Now, tariffs and barriers are part of the bureaucracy, right? But the bureaucracy are the politicians. Right? These people are our representatives. We vote ’em in.
I have a forensic internet buddy from defence. He’s going to look at this and get back to me.
Now, what about West Wing: have you seen it? There’s an episode where Toby Ziegler talks about free trade: he speaks brilliantly about this. He even describes how the speech pattern works in convincing people to ‘listen’. The above video does exactly the same thing. This is irony.
I’m not being critical of you, OK? I’m just trying to piece things together. I really have to look at the sources, first as well as the people interviewed. When a questioner says “how strong is the opinion against the EU here?” it’s a leading question!
A better question would have been: “what does the EU do for you?”
He might have said “nothing” or “a bit because of..”
(I get very worried about the ‘posh’ side).
I want to hear from Lindsey Tanner, Kevin Rudd -and annoyingly to others, John Pilger.
Any video must show both sides and this doesn’t? Do you know what I mean?2 July 2016 at 01:29 #53037
No lobbying is not ever essential. Its a huge problem here in the States. I really hope we can do
something about getting money out of politics. It has a strangle hold on our politicians. The
NRA situation alone totally is disgusting. Cant even get a decent back round checks bill passed
in congress because so many congress folks are bought by NRA money. Same exact issue in the EU.
Exact issue! No difference. Corporations are making the rules for the EU just the way it has been
here. In fact, these rules are really about profits and not people. Yes Farage is a total ass. But
even that ass is onto something. I don’t like his rhetoric either. But he totally understands
that the UK is being screwed over. This video is a chunk of a larger documentary. I haven’t had the
time to view the whole thing yet. Hoping to get into it this weekend. I’d be interested
to know your buddy’s opinion about this too. Anyone’s for that matter. Free trade is trade left to
its natural course. The EU does NOT practice free trade. That’s why all the regulations. They
control trade thru all these different tricks that they implement. Like Debbie says, the EU
wants all the people to think they are totally awesome sauce. But the reality is actually a bit sinister.
I just read that Gove says if he is elected PM he wont trigger the article 50 this year which is probably
good. The UK shouldn’t make things easy for the EU on this exit. That’s not how you get the best deal.2 July 2016 at 02:08 #53038
I looked up Tony Gosling. He is responsible for the documentary. He was an investigative reporter
for the BBC. He has a radio show in London. He also has an interesting looking FB page that follows
British politics. I don’t think this doc is conspiracy theory thing although he does seem to believe
the EU is a social society experiment on behalf of elites that want to run everything. But part of me
thinks that’s true too.2 July 2016 at 02:13 #53039Anonymous @
So, The Dow, owned by Murdoch is not the only area in which Murdoch has his fingers. Other options and other companies….
There’s an assumption that now the UK is out there’ll be magical connections with the US except those connections have always existed. Tim Flannery’s argument is that it’s essential to understand population movements, population growth and the geological underpinnings of countries whose farming is their economic ‘spin point’. Australia’s farming is one such area.
Except despite our dreadful soil – compared with Europe and America – we’re still better off than the UK which is not designed for large scale farming -hence owner farmers voting Remain in large majority (because the EU protected them) -Flannery’s geological and anthropological approach is mythically scary to pollies on both sides.
To other countries: if the UK wanted, as you suggested, to trade with other countries ( I think you said it would open up other possibilities) then this isn’t the case when those same countries are EU -that entire area is closed off for good.
The UK is a service based economy. This is a massive issue. The employment of millions is dependent upon that knowledge. The café owners, workers, those travelling to where the Spring/Summer harvests occur etc…
So refer back to farming and textiles and continue with building: in order to move on in the last century, the UK had factories employing thousands in cities across the UK to provide colleges/TAFEs/universities as well as in manufacturing (vehicles) and large building projects (corporations HQ). This was 75% EU money. At times it appeared the UK was spending more and getting less but at other times the UK was was getting more from the EU relationship (boom time).
Those same cities will have industries pulled out and placed in Europe: France will definitely grab those opportunities out from under. The planned campus’ will fail at the building stage.
Lastly, for now, is understanding that the UK has very few economic and even geological** farming and urban planners specifically able to negotiate trade and business deals: they never needed to for a very long time. Part of being in the Common Market meant such understanding was left to other stronger negotiators off the UK land mass and that’s a massive problem because without clever connections to other countries negotiating positions they’re stuck and they’ll be ripped off.
The only reason Kevin Rudd was able to stave off the recession in Australia in 2008 was because he’s a Mandarin speaker who’s also economically clever -we survived only because of his veteran knowledge of economics and population explosions. His relationship with Japan and China was legendary and only matched by H.V. Evatt last century.
** I definitely meant geological here as per Flannery’s arguments: soil and weather conditions are primary areas which require decision making contingent upon discrete continental land masses.
Kindest, Puro and Son2 July 2016 at 02:44 #53040Anonymous @
Different kinds of ‘elites’. Some being the so-called old bureaucracy including lobbyists and others who aren’t voted in at the ballot box and yet seem to make decisions for other people.
It’s a bit like H. Clinton involved with the health changes when, as First Lady, she was unelected and yet sat in on every meeting -that kind of ‘elite’ bothers me, personally.
As you were working on political areas, I’m reminded I must vote today knowing that the billionaire Turnbull will emerge victorious in an election that is claiming to be ‘close’ but I think he and the conservatives (the Liberal Party) will easily walk in again. Labour barely survived the last election. Still, this is a Double Dissolution and so, as the Senate is up for full re-election, it might be a pyrrhic victory if the Liberals cannot pass any bills through a possessive Senate.
Bill Shorten, a fantastic negotiator and clever clod is still tarnished by his involvement with our own elites -the unions -who laid Kevin Rudd out on the deck and then did the same to his replacement, Julia Gillard. Tonight, as I have done since I was 11, I’ll be watching Australia Votes on the ABC. The usual co-host has retired but a friend from uni days is stepping up to co-host the programme -it’s a much smaller show than those airing on commercial television stations where the hosts are the morning talk show dummies. They lack political knowledge but are sartorially bouffant 🙂
Kindest, PuroSolo2 July 2016 at 03:15 #53041Anonymous @
The UK shouldn’t make things easy for the EU on this exit. That’s not how you get the best deal.
You don’t get the best deal either when you leave something. Systemic changes work from within. The UK has no bargaining position now so “making things easier” is redundant. Had the grass roots been heard prior to the Referendum the pollies wouldn’t be shaking their heads with astonishment at the “unpredictable” vote.
“…so many congress folks are bought by NRA money. Same exact issue in the EU. Exact issue! No difference. Corporations are making the rules for the EU just the way it has been here. In fact, these rules are really about profits and not people. Yes Farage is a total ass. But even that ass is onto something. I don’t like his rhetoric either. But he totally understands that the UK is being screwed over…”
I can’t really agree that a large percentage of Congress is bought and paid for by the NRA, Lisa. I don’t deny their influence, however and I agree with you about gun control and more importantly accessorising weapons with specific bullets.
Yes, all rules are about profits. Profits can = a strong market base and it works beautifully when a service economy can also provide employment in large manufacturing areas with high wages and return-on fees and referrals.
I think we can argue, safely, that the US and its corporation largesse has resulted in astonishing problems but these are not the same problems affecting the EU.
The reason Farage is an “ass” is because he uses one argument and applies this to other irrelevant issues. He’s xenophobic and wants to hunker down and ‘protect’ the UK from immigrant “issues” when the argument promoted by others here is that the migrant issue has been interpreted incorrectly -see some of the discussions proposed by @pedant on the Balkan-isation problem.
Farage believes that the UK has sent billions to the EU with no relative return.
Is that your belief?
I refer, again, to the concept of the UK as a service based economy using EU money to create jobs and multiply, for generations, the profit margins of various counties which invite industries to gain a foothold. These will now be lost -whole cities and towns losing out: Sunderland being one such example and I could name six others. But it’s been done already.
“The EU does NOT practise free trade. That’s why there’s so many regulations.”
Free trade has never about unregulated practises. That’s the whole point of democratic representation: it creates certain barriers for protection and that’s essential.
“Lobbyists are not ever essential”
Small groups lobbying for attention they otherwise would never receive is essential though I know that enormous lobbyists -the Tobacco industry for one and corporations lobbying Congress to reduce National Parks funding and protection are obviously problematic and that’s a systemic democratic problem which must be addressed. Pressure groups exist in part to re-balance the extremism of some so-called democratic position.
I hope this helps and I apologise for monopolising the Pub!
Nope, I think our UK contingent has gone to bed already!
Purrs…2 July 2016 at 03:18 #53042
Don’t forget that the Brexit means that the EU looses a lot too. Mainly cash. Lots and lots of it.
From the 5th largest economy in the world. The EU’s economy would still in trouble even if
there was no brexit. Half of all the investment in the UK still comes from other places . That
wont all suddenly go poof cause of the brexit. People do keep trying very hard to say that investment
will go out of Britain. Really? I think that’s a pipe dream. About 2/3 of the UK economy is still
domestic. The EU has been a shrinking market for the UK and in recent years the EU investment
into the UK has been shrinking. Interestingly, the investment from the USA has been increasing
but not as much as it could have because its been blocked from doing so by the EU. The UK is still the
EU’s largest export destination. They don’t want to loose that. Especially Germany. Of course they
are going to give you a trade deal. The next couple of years might be a bit turbulent. During this
time you need to start training excellent trade negotiators. I believe that the UK is going to be just fine.2 July 2016 at 15:20 #53045
we’re still better off than the UK which is not designed for large scale farming -hence owner farmers voting Remain in large majority (because the EU protected them)
Not quite. *Tenant* farmers voted Leave – they object to all those environmental regulations but have no stake in the underlying value of the business. Owner-farmers mainly went Remain. And it is owner famers who will be screwed when the subsidies vanish and their lack of economies of scale slaughter them on the winds of trade.
The EU has been a shrinking market for the UK and in r
Nope. You’ve been using percentages again, haven’t you?2 July 2016 at 16:07 #53046
I think there’s been an absolute as well as a percentage fall in UK exports to the EU since 2011.
Any government, at whatever geographical level, which loses the support of 52% of a population no longer has a democratic mandate anyway. Consent of the governed, and all that.
As far as the UK in the EU is concerned, we’re just discussing the details of the funeral.2 July 2016 at 17:56 #53047
LOL! You make me laugh . 🙂 Actually it has trailed off from half to about 44% . A lesser share.
But this also includes something called the Rotterdam-Antwerp effect. That is to say many of the exports
heading out from the UK to the EU are actually diverted to other parts of the world thru those
ports. Why? This is a direct manipulation of the trade to show that the EU is more important.
So the real adjustment is likely below 40%. It also helps to inflate the Dutch and Belgian
trade statistics. So can you really trust the trade figures?3 July 2016 at 00:37 #53048Anonymous @
Ah, OK, I thought that owner farmers voted Remain but Tenant ‘Leave’? Did I write that? “hence owner farmers voting Remain in large …” -Owners not tenants…but yes, I need to move to Step 2 with that now…In other words, if they did so, why did they…etc…
@lisa what’s the Rotterdam effect. Or anyone?
@bluesqueakpip I know. You’re right. But I just have this appalling need to know! I can’t sit around and be stupid about this. What happens next depends on our knowledge about ‘before’, no?
Now, there’s Belgium and Dutch trade statistics. Jesus. More work 🙂
I’m never going to fully understand this.
10 am nearly and I need a drink: post election morning. Grrgh3 July 2016 at 01:07 #53049Anonymous @
Did you watch Election Night ABC? Antony refused to call it at 9.25 pm and still refuses to call it now.
A surprise, no?
Anyway, 75 for LNP win and they’re below the magic figure 6 mins ago: they fear a Hung Parl. which I doubt, personally. Still, by now, we usually know the outcome. I was all “close election my ass” -and I still think postals/lates/hospital votes usually mean the conservatives take the House as lates etc tend to mean a Liberal victory.
Maybe it depends on how many people screwed up the 1.2 metre ballot paper for the Senate?
Twice as many people were actually called in to help CARRY the ballot to the voting area!
@pedant -you gotta read this stuff. It’s truly funny: a ballot paper bigger than some windshields. The ALP (Labour) has a ‘to vote’ guide in which one is asked to vote for the SEM Party which is actually the Sex and Marijuana Party in the Senate. Hilarious fun -except it should be very, very sober (:cough:)
Hindmarsh is doing typically ‘well’ Your seat? Can’t remember.3 July 2016 at 01:17 #53050Anonymous @
hmmm. OK, Petrie looks like it will be taken by the LNP therefore the LNP -given the annoying people in Aspley and Carseldine who, being nouveau riche, take the easy route and generally foreground the entire country.
My guitar gently weeps.
Why oh why do people say “QLD never matters” when the entire election hangs on QLD?3 July 2016 at 02:49 #53051Arbutus @arbutus
@puroandson Sympathies on the uncertainties of a close election. It’s what we thought we were getting last fall until surprising numbers of voters actually coalesced around a single viewpoint.
I’ve been confused by some of what I’ve been reading, can you clarify for me? Your government has been a right wing coalition, but it includes the Liberal party? In Canada, the Liberals are centre-left and at this point in history, hell would pretty much be an ice rink before they would ally themselves with the Conservatives.
On the other hand, in British Columbia, our provincial government is called the “B.C. Liberals”; however, a less liberal bunch could hardly be dreamed up, in this country at least! Confusing, for sure.3 July 2016 at 03:25 #53052Anonymous @
in Aus, the Liberal Party are the conservatives (small ‘c’ -as there are other conservative parties and also Independents) which, to up votes, allied themselves with what was once the Country Party (representing rural areas/votes) and which is now the National Party. This coalition is the LNP =Liberal and National Party.
Labour (ALP) is the Left and favours bigger govt, higher taxes, ‘free’ health and education.
The Liberals believe that education is ‘user pays’ and that health, ultimately will also be sponsored and privatised.
However, Bill Shorten (leader of Labour= our opposition) found himself in tatters claiming that Malcolm Turnbull (Liberal PM) was going to remove Medicare (free health) completely when Turnbull categorically denied any such thing.
However, on the inside, I know a bit more: Turnbull definitely wants to privatise our health system. This Medicare issue was addressed by Gough Whitlam, a former PM in the ’70s who introduced free health. Nobody remembers this.
I was saying to @pedant that our institutional memory is terrible. I recall meeting with mates at local Labour divisional meetings and having a father laughing at me: “you’ll eventually grow up and vote Liberal like everyone else”.
I said “nope.” My mates said “nope.”
One of these mates -now a corporate ‘sally’ drives his Volvo and owns a 7 bedroom home (courtesy of his wife -he actually proposed to me when he was 18 and a socialist. I had no idea of the power of his next girlfriend and her money 🙂 ) The other ‘mate’ now writes for a Murdoch owned paper and editorialises at will about the “lunacy of the Left.”
Dad was right. They all went Right.
Except me and a handful of people I vaguely keep in contact with including the young-ish lady who helps comment on the ABC during election night. She did a smashing job. Her definitions of Labour and Liberal are very helpful: if I could link to that right now I would -my laptop (“Stellar”) is dying and amongst other purchases (remember the computerised fridge?) I need a new lap-top. We have ipads and smart phones (Son) but having worked in a federal office, we were told “no smart phones, they’re very easily hacked on the street”.
If I had a smart phone (ironically) I could link to some pages right now 🙂
I hope my definitions help. <<*\->>
PS: it’s easy to talk about privatising health when the PM’s own lodging is on the Sydney Harbour -the most desirable location in the world – and its value is about $45 million. The internet will categorise it lower but I’m including land, accessories and art work.3 July 2016 at 11:56 #53054
@puroandson Well said. I spent three hours on a polling booth yesterday handing out how to votes, a seriously depressing task. Fingers crossed it will be a hung parliament thus limiting the amount of damage “they” can achieve. Our eldest did scrutineering last night and found it an interesting exercise. All in all I am glad the weekend is over. I hate elections.
I was born a “leftie” I think. It seems to be in the DNA though it skipped a generation with my parents who were both conservative, Menzies voters. The extended family on my mother’s side all lean heavily to the left. My great grandfather was a socialist and a story teller. He wrote short stories for his sons when he was away working. (Which we still have fortunately though I struggle with the handwriting.) It was said that he never “hit” his sons as was convention at the time however one day their fighting had driven their mother to distraction and so he pulled off his belt to give them “a hiding” swung it and it caught on and smashed her favourite vase. Needless to say he never resorted to corporal punishment again.
Not all “lefties” swing to the right with age. We have a ninety year old friend who has lost none of his youthful idealism and remains politically active. He is still a card carrying member of the Fabian society.
Sorry I have not been posting lately, simply “lurking”. I have been following the discussion here, especially in regard to Brexit but busy with various projects and feel that I have nothing worth adding to what has already been said.
Janette3 July 2016 at 13:58 #53056
what’s the Rotterdam effect. Or anyone?
‘The Rotterdam effect’ is the name given to the idea that some EU exports may not actually be exports to the EU. 😉
The Port of Rotterdam is the largest port in Europe, and it’s very common for EU exports to non-EU countries to first be shipped TO Rotterdam, for sea delivery to non-EU countries. Or, to be sold to exporters in Rotterdam, for export elsewhere.
However, in the export statistics, they will be listed under the first place they’re shipped to. Rotterdam. That’s the ‘Rotterdam Effect’ – non EU exports may be classified as EU exports. If you want a government explanation, it’s here.
So there’s an indeterminate number of the UK’s non-EU exports which may be being classified as the UK’s EU exports. Nobody quite knows how much – upper limit, 8%, but probably about 4%.3 July 2016 at 14:06 #53057
And there are some righties that swing more leftie with age. 😀3 July 2016 at 14:51 #53058
@bluesqueakpip Indeed. My partner’s mother swung to the left in her later years from hard line “Liberal voter” to a confirmed ALP voter. (Might have been our influence but I think other factors played a part.) My Mum also began to vote Labor but I do think that was mostly my influence however it was Mum to introduced me to the concept of Socialism. Like many voters she did not marry her ideas to her voting preference. Ie she believed in equality but voted for the party of inequality. I suspect that, like Mum, many voters don’t really understand just what they are voting for.
Janette3 July 2016 at 21:58 #53061Mudlark @mudlark
I’m responding here to your post on the Music forum, since this seems a more appropriate place
Johnson didn’t expect to win the Referendum. For Johnson it would be an honourable loss, alignment to an influential bas of the party and then…power!
And his face the day following the Referendum spoke volumes – a man on whom had dawned the meaning of the saying ‘Be careful what you wish for’.
And it turns out that not only did the Remain party have no contingency plan in the event of a vote against them, neither was there any consensus or coherent plan among the Leavers – though perhaps that isn’t so surprising when one considers the terms on which their respective campaigns were conducted.
The referendum was the result of a cynical ploy by an inept prime minister to keep a faction of his party in line and was exploited by an unprincipled chancer, and both got their come-uppance. On my way back from a hospital appointment last Wednesday I was chatting to the taxi driver, who said that he had voted Remain but couldn’t help taking some gleeful satisfaction in the fact that the government and powers-that-be had received a well-deserved kick up the arse. Fair enough, but as an exercise in democracy it was a travesty, and I have little hope that the government will draw the correct conclusions. Whether or not the disaffected were persuaded that the EU was the cause of their problems, the EU is not inherently responsible for the economic and social policies pursued by successive UK governments over the past 36 years, and since I doubt very much that the Tory leopard is about to change its spots, and the Labour party seems at present intent on tearing itself apart, leaving the EU is likely to make life even more difficult – in the short and medium term at the very least – for those who are already heavily disadvantaged. There seems to me to be a real danger that the political climate could get very nasty indeed.
Sigh! I had resolved not to join in the discussion of the referendum and the politics thereof, and now that I have I shall probably regret it, but I may as well let it stand.3 July 2016 at 22:32 #53062Mudlark @mudlark
You mentioned subsidies to farmers. Among the EU monies available to farmers in the UK were grants for the preservation or restoration and management of ecological habitats and diversity – heathlands, wetlands, hedgerows and mixed woodland. During and after the war, farmers were encouraged to bring marginal land into cultivation and, as agricultural machinery became larger, hedgerows were ripped out to make large ‘prairie’ fields, field margins and headlands were ploughed and pasture and meadow land ‘improved’. Agriculture and other forms of development have also resulted in the destruction of a much ancient woodland. This destruction of habitats and the use of pesticides and fertilisers have resulted in the steep and in some cases terminal decline of native species of birds, insects and plants which I have witnessed in my lifetime, with goodness knows what knock-on effects to the ecological balance. The grants from the EU to farmers have helped in various ways to mitigate this decline, but I have no confidence that they will be replaced by money from the UK government.4 July 2016 at 00:54 #53064
And it turns out that not only did the Remain party have no contingency plan in the event of a vote against them, neither was there any consensus or coherent plan among the Leavers
And that, to me, is the scariest thing about this whole Referendum. Because I could work out, halfway through the campaign, that there was a possibility of Brexit. Add the poll-of-polls constantly reverting to 50/50 to the equally consistent ‘Leavers are more likely to vote’, and you’ve got a Brexit.
Now for the Indyref, every party down to the Greens had a Scexit plan. They might not have been very good ones, but they all had plans. But it seems everyone in Westminster is either so out of touch, so delusional – or both – that they never even considered the possibility.
This is probably the biggest failure of government of our times. Not the Referendum itself; that was possibly ill-considered, but certainly manageable. The failure was that nobody, nobody at all, ever considered that a united front of Labour, mainstream Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, even the SNP –
– might lose.4 July 2016 at 00:56 #53065
@puroandson Sorry for not getting back to you with a better explanation about what the Rotterdam
effect is sooner and thank you @bluesqueakpip for answering that.
@mudlark I emailed my friend Debbie from Derby about your environmental post .
She told me that there is also blame on EU for all the floods they have had. She contends that since they
switched over to some sort of EU environmental plan to keep the rivers in undisturbed conditions that
its meant horrible floods they just have to accept .
Do you think there could be anything to that ?4 July 2016 at 01:07 #53066
Yes, I’ve certainly heard that argument: I’m not qualified to know whether there’s any basis in fact. The EU itself has flatly denied it and stated that the cause of recent serious floods is the record rainfall. It certainly seems reasonable that record rainfall might cause floods.
However, the local argument is that they’ve had flood plans in place for generations which have worked – but the EU directives take effect and suddenly they’re wading in water. You can see why they’d connect the two.4 July 2016 at 01:27 #53067Anonymous @
This has been a long conversation -I’ve learnt a lot (and I needed to)
@mudlark -good to see you’re up and about and hope your visit to the Doctor was OK?
Yes, Tim Flannery -about whom I wrote up thread writes of the specific threats (past and present) of over-farming to soil particulates in and across Europe, the States and Aus. I found your discussion about birds and other species quite worrying indeed.
Blue -yes, unbelievable that there was a cynical belief that the “people would come to their senses.”
Certainly one of the most shocking results this century -anywhere/anywhen.4 July 2016 at 01:42 #53069XAD4 @xad4
What your friend is talking about is river dredging. There are indeed people who think that dredging rivers would have avoided or eased the effects of the big floods of 2014 and, to a lesser extend, of December 2015.
However, there are also quite a lot of people opposing this view, our Environment Agency among them. I refer you to this article
I’m afraid I cannot cite any article stating the opposite view at the moment, but you’ll find some of their arguments in the comments.
I’ve also heard people saying on Facebook that it was the EU who forbade the dredging, but given that there were ongoing discussions after the floods if they should dredge now or not (I think they even did something in the end, but I’m not sure), and these discussions never even mentioned the EU, I’m not quite sure this is indeed the case.
XAD44 July 2016 at 02:47 #53070
@xad4 Yes and thank you.
Well I did a googling on any connection between the EU environmental policies and UK
flooding and found several posts but here are 2
I guess this is another issue where Brexiters might feel there is EU over reaching.
Lots of folks have had some very bad experiences with the flooding and tbh with global warming
I have a hunch there will lots more.4 July 2016 at 02:54 #53071
Your friend Debby is an idiot who can’t be bothered to do research.
Here is a proper analysis of the floods, with particular reference to the role of dredging.
The immediate causes of which were:
- A month’s rain in about three days (which accumulated, since such incidents are getting more common thanks to climate change);
- The failure of landowners to properly maintain the sluices. Farmers generally don’t spend money if they can avoid it (it is a very low margin business in the UK, kept afloat entirely by EU largesse).
This left the authorities in the position of having to choose between protecting farmers fields or protecting the town of Bridgewater.
Treasury rules specify that every £1 of Environmental Agency spending must generate £8 of benefit. Thats UK TREASURY. Nothing to do with the EU in any way shape or form. They are not involved. At all.
Given the choice between protecting Bridgwater, a town of 41,000 people and of historical importance, or protecting some fields, under those rules, where do you think the best return will be?
Write out 100 times : “UK Treasury, not EU.”
And then do the same for “Must stop cherry-picking unverified assertions.”
Also, tell Debby to learn how to fact check.
There is also a Baltimore (or any other East Coast port) effect, since nearly all UK exports to Canada go via the US – significantly inflating the apparent importance of the US market. All of our oil, for instance, goes via Portland, Maine up a pipe to Canada. Recorded in the UK as an export to the US, in Canada as an import from the UK and not recorded at all in the US because it goes straight into the pipe (the pipe operator’s fees might get recorded as foreign earnings, but probably charged to the ship operator, most likely registered in Belize).
The Rotterdam effect probably exists, but it is impossible to measure and impossible to isolate from all of the many variants.4 July 2016 at 02:55 #53072
Oh Dear God, you’re citing brietbart. Do you even know who that is?4 July 2016 at 03:12 #53073
Gosh I don’t think you can be too much an idiot and become an Oncologist? I think you
are just having a really hard time adjusting to your new reality. You are right in your
example about the USA port import/export model. So what ? the EU is doing the same
exact manipulation with the UK and who knows who else. How is this helpful?4 July 2016 at 03:57 #53074Anonymous @
Yes, I read about the Portland effect since learning about the Rotterdam effect.
Thing is doctors can be a bit stupid? I work with them -when I was working as a music therapist. Their knowledge of politics was incredibly attached to their business mentality which was the God is Market -they were protecting their business, essentially. Maybe your doctors in the States are better than ours, in that respect, Lisa?
Accumulated water collection problems are responsible for the floods you mentioned. The Tim Flannery publications help with this understanding. The book you need is The Future Eaters. I don’t want to name drop, OK? But this guy is a mate from uni, knows his stuff and his anthropological and economic understanding marks the forefront of research in this country, the UK and Europe regarding dredging, soil maintenance and population controls.
There’s some confusion in those links between what is EU responsibility and UK onus.
A panoply of sources defending a marked abruption in EU roles and definitions presents a serious problem. The questions I asked specifically and to which I directed my posts was the nature of the service industry in the UK. I think I asked you a question about that, Lisa, and to what extent the US is a service based economy? How does Europe fit into that equation, for instance? Do you know? I need some clarification on that, certainly.
The Rotterdam Effect and articles surrounding this, displays the soporific quality of arguments based on % when it’s almost impossible to delineate and calibrate those statistics and their effects. Do you see what I mean, Lisa?
Kindest, PuroSolo4 July 2016 at 04:03 #53075Anonymous @
who the heck is brietbart?
Is it a cheese? 🙂
OK, I’m trying to add humour to all this and failing because I’m not British and therefore have no sense of humour at all.
The ishoos are not necessarily being fully answered here, Lisa. I feel like I’m banging my head up against your wall –aand I’m trying to find the funny here.
a) the Rotterdam Effect demonstrates the difficulty of using % in this Brexit argument (and as Pip has said it’s about the grandkids arguing over the funeral parlour at this point)
b) the UK acknowledges it ‘put more in than it got out’ at some point in the revolving door of transaction and tariffs. That, to a socialist mind set, is good thing, yes? Would you agree? I believe, as a DEM supporter, there’s a tinge of socialism in the Lisa family. 🙂
c) however the universities and manufacturing areas as I mentioned have lost their money. This means jobs further down the road as well as the present time.
d) Tenant farmers and Owner farmers need their own discussion point completely -I must restate the issue of knowledge of: 1) unique conditions in the UK regarding farming -soil, agricultural methods and 2) farming versus the current service economy
e) a significant issue is the lack of cohesion between ministerial responsibility, media presentation and saturation of particular viewing (media) markets together with ‘the people have voted’ principle: what does that mean exactly for democracy? This is a practical and philosophical issue and one, considering my attitudes towards referenda, requiring much further discussion (at a later date -as referenda are becoming a considered form of democratic ‘appeal’. Generally in Australia they fail)4 July 2016 at 04:26 #53076
Hi — My friend the Oncologist lives in the midlands of the UK. The floods she is referring
to are not the floods they had in Somerset. There were lots of floods in the midlands and Cumbia
and other spots in the north that got hit really hard too and they just want their rivers dredged.
Yes Debbie is a brexiter. Her point is that the remainers don’t entirely get why the vote went
the way it did. The EU has made all sorts of little impositions that the UK government had done
nothing to alleviate and it when the election occurred it was a classic case of we are mad as hell
and we aren’t going to take it anymore.
The USA is a mixed economy. Some of pretty much everything. The UK economy used to also
be a lot more diverse. Things began to change when it joined the EU. But it would be a lot
more appropriate for you to put the question as to why it changed to the English forumers.
Of course the UK used to be very industrialized. You can probably google some good opinion
pieces about that too.4 July 2016 at 04:28 #53077
Read about your vote tie up. What are your thoughts about that?4 July 2016 at 05:39 #53079Anonymous @
Hi there Miss @lisa
It’s too early to tell. Election counting begins again on Tuesday.
The likelihood is that the Coalition will win more seats -that is, with preferences, they’ll enough to govern in the Lower House.
Some commentators suggest there’ll be a Hung Parliament -many are putting the fizzle in to push the Laboury point of view.
I still say it’s too early to call either way. I don’t believe Labour will win -it’s a “pipe dream’ But considering the last election result I’m surprised the ALP has won the seats it has.
Hi Miss Lisa -this is Son writing to you. Mum always educated me in politics so I have written my answer to you. If I’m wrong @janetteb might be able to tell you. Am I sort of right, Miss Janette?
Son Solo4 July 2016 at 06:10 #53080
To change the subject, h0w about this bit of news.
“>A gun store in the Chicago suburbs has come under critical fire after it announced it would hold a raffle to raise money for the victims of the Orlando Pulse nightclub shooting – with the grand prize an AR-15 semi-automatic rifle, similar to the weapon used by homophobic terrorist Omar Mateen in the June 12 massacre.”
On a lighter note:
A suitcase found floating in a river in Perth WA, contained a body. The police are treating this as a supicious death?
Missy4 July 2016 at 06:24 #53081
@puroandson You have summed it up well as far as I can tell though I am reluctant to follow results too closely. I suspect the Libs will hang on with a narrow majority but given their inability to achieve much when they had the clear majority I suspect they will be rather ineffectual because like “Mr Wolf” in “Preston Pig”, which you might recall from your younger days, they are not very good at being bad. Fingers crossed anyway.
(Hope your Mum is ok.)
Janette4 July 2016 at 09:04 #53082Anonymous @
a suitcase has a body in it and you find this a “lighter note” Miss?
I don’t think you find it funny though, do you? I’m not sure what you mean. Or any of that at all.
I do believe the article about the nightclub shooting and the gunstore lottery is bizarre! WOW! That really is awful in every way possible -as is the death of someone placed in a suitcase
@janetteb Yeah, she’s doing alright. Had a bad night I think. I’m now off to see a silly action flick with me mates starring Dwayne Johnson -it’ll be terrible I’m sure. I love really good films and there’s not that many that I can watch (Mum won’t let me see Spotlight -I think it’s called that) but we did watch Friday the 13th and Chinatown.
One was serious and clever and the other the usual teenage t’ass horn.
I made that up -porn and horror -but it’s very tame compared with what Mum says is around. I don’t even check or look that stuff up. From a devotional point of view it hurts my ‘soul’. That sounds odd to my mates but that’s how I see it right now.
I don’t know if you teach that type of thing Miss @bluesqueakpip but it’s what I talked about in Sunday school last week: about how some movies and books can be hurtful to women and also to our own souls and ethical considerations. It’s not really (just) a religious issue but an ethical one is what I was talking about.
Son4 July 2016 at 09:33 #53083Anonymous @
You asked this: “But it would be a lot more appropriate for you to put the question as to why it changed to the English forumers….Of course the UK used to be very industrialized. ”
In other words to the people in the UK @XDA4 also “did the UK not diversify when it joined the Common Market?”
I would say it was an industrial centre -right thru the 1800s (@mudlark this is your area too Mum says). But in the 1980s mining and other areas were closed off. So a system of imports and exports occurred whereby the EU ensured a certain simplification: as for “the small impositions” your friend the oncologist mentioned I don’t know how a “small” imposition over time is worse than burning the bridges, the boats and the people in between by leaving the EU.
If the UK remained relatively stable then staying in the EU would be more helpful than leaving it. The point of interest is if people are “as mad as hell” about the EU then what safeguards have they themselves put in place which will ensure they can move on from this decision? To me, “mad as hell” doesn’t mean ruin whole economies (small economies fall more quickly and are easily devastated) to demonstrate a point when staying with the system will mean bargaining power. Now that power is gone for ever.
As for river dredging, how is that an EU matter anyway? Isn’t that a council or county thing (mum’s probably asleep now and I’m left holding this baton)? Also, the EU would have policies in place for flood victims -if not, the local parliaments do? I know Australia sent money to those flood places last year. We have pretty large funds to assist the commonwealth for Acts of God – or however its worded.
<scratching head and grabbing wallet>
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